The most complete Oscar column you’ll read today. Go ahead. Bet us.

Picture it… March 24, 1986… a 13-year-old gay boy sits on a living room floor on East Avenue in Scottdale, GA, watching the Academy Awards for the very first time.  He has been obsessed… OBSESSED with The Color Purple (1985), both the film and the novel, and is thrilled to watch it surely reap all the awards it truly deserves.  It was nominated for 11 awards, and this young boy thought it would win them all… there would have to be a tie in Best Supporting Actress of course, but how could one choose between Oprah Winfrey’s Sophia and Margaret Avery’s Shug?  It was a Sophie’s Choice, indeed.  Watch the film again, and you will see what I mean.  They would both have to win.  That little boy got up, turned the dial on the television set (there was no remote) and settled in for one of the longest, most painful and confusing nights of his life.  That little boy was me, and this night would set me up for a tumultuous and compulsive love/hate relationship with the Academy Awards that torments and thrills me to this very day.  Just as Stephen Spielberg’s cinematic adaptation of Alice Walker’s brilliant novel would unleash in me a life-long devotion to movies and books, so too would this clusterfuck of an award show force me into a life of painstaking study and analysis on magazines, card catalogs, reference books, and later, the Internet, all in an epic quest to discover how the Academy Awards work… if I could figure this out, I could avoid the pain of that evening ever happening to me again (more on this later).

 

OUT OF AFRICAOUT OF AFRICAOUT OF AFRICA!  The film title rang in my ears, having the deafening effect akin to an early 20th century victim of shell shock.  I sat there, slack-jawed as The Color Purple lost every single award it was nominated for.  I would later discover that this would tie the film with The Turning Point (1977) for the most nominations with zero wins in the history of the awards.  Perhaps nothing hurt that evening as much as hearing Geraldine Page’s name announced over Whoopi Goldberg’s as the winner of Best Actress.  I had held out hope that Whoopi would win and had been expecting, by that point, that if she didn’t win, then it would be Meryl Streep for Out of Africa (1985)… but GERALDINE PAGE?!?!  I was blindsided.  I was devastated.  I was naïve.  It being my first time at that particular rodeo, I didn’t know the politics of the event.  I didn’t know the award’s history with race.  I didn’t understand what the phrase, “____ is due” meant.  I didn’t know about the guilds and what weight they held.  I didn’t understand how the voting happened.  But I learned. Boy did I learn. I learned the hard way.

 

Looking back, the signs were all there.  While the film was nominated for a staggering 11 awards, it was not nominated in some very key categories.  Stephen Spielberg was snubbed for Best Director.  Films without a Best Director nomination just don’t stand much of a chance.  It was also not nominated for Best Editing (a sure sign that your film is doomed).  And Danny Glover was skipped over for Best Actor.  Taken together, these omissions state very clearly that the Academy membership just didn’t take the film very seriously.  Add to this the fact that African Americans had won a total of three (three!) awards in the top categories up to that point: Best Actor for Sidney Poitier (1963), Best Supporting Actress for Hattie McDaniel (1939), and Best Supporting Actor for Louis Gossett Jr. (1982).  Whoopi would have to take her (consolation) prize in 1990 for Ghost. There have only been 10 awards handed to African American actors since 1983, most of which have come after 2001.  No film produced by an African American had ever been nominated for Best Picture before The Color Purple, and only one has since: Precious (2009).  I know it may shock some of you, but Hollywood has a race bias.

“But, Damion,” you say, “times have changed! Mo’Nique has an Oscar!” True enough. She does, indeed, have an Oscar.  But how many faces of color do you see among this year’s nominees?  20 performers nominated—all white.  The only time a film “about” race wins best picture, it is about how white people overcome their racism and overcome their liberal guilt about it (see In the Heat of the Night (1967), Driving Miss Daisy (1989), Dances with Wolves (1990), and Crash (2005)).

 

The Color Purple never had a chance.  Out of Africa centered on the white experience in colonial Africa and was an epic.  Geraldine Page was due, and Oprah and Margaret Avery split their votes.  Out of Africa was nominated for, and won Best Director and was nominated for Best Editing.  If I had known then what I know now, I would have seen the Out of Africa sweep coming.

 

Rules for picking the winners at your Oscar Party:

(1) Never pick with your heart. This is the hardest rule of Oscar prognostication, and the easiest one to forget.  My experience has shown me that it never works and always leaves me feeling betrayed and wounded.  See the win of Crash over Brokeback Mountain (2005).  Yes, I am still bitter and angry about this!  This was the last time I picked with my heart (with full support of precursors, mind you), and it almost made me give up on the Academy Awards for good.  Almost.  They have a strange power over me.  I wish I knew how to quit them.

(2) Don’t pay too much attention to the critics and the critic’s awards. They will lead you down the wrong path.  The Academy’s taste is much more conservative.

 

(3) Don’t vote for the film that embodies the “zeitgeist.” It never wins.

 

(4) Never bet against Randy Newman. No matter how much you hate him.

 

(5) Never underestimate the power of Meryl Streep. She might not win.  After all, out of her 16 Oscar nominations, she has only won twice: Sophie’s Choice (1982) and Kramer vs. Kramer (1979).  But she will get close, and she will alter the voting in her category.  The Meryl Streep effect is real.

 

(6) Pay attention to the guild awards (PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG)… they are closer to reality than the critics.

 

(7) Seeing all the nominated films only serves to cloud your judgment.  This makes you think about what/who was good rather than what/who is going to win.

 

(8) Pay attention to the trends in the precursors, but not too much attention.

 

(9) Take into consideration the history of the Oscars.  The first woman won Best Director last year. Straight men playing gay can win, gay men playing gay will not.  Best Actor almost never goes to a young man.  Best Actress almost always goes to a young woman. See above discussion of race.

 

(10) Oscar loves the Brits! Oscar loves an Epic!

 

So who is going to win this year?  This is what you have read this far for isn’t it?  What film will dominate?  Will the recent trend in awarding Best Picture to the film that deserves it continue?

 

The answer to the last question is no.  All the forward movement the Academy has been experiencing lately has come to a screeching halt this year.  Everything old is new again.  This year is shaping up to be the most traditional Oscar year we have seen in a decade.  I had gotten so comfortable with one of my picks for best of the year, if not my best of the year, winning over the last 4 years, that this is coming as a bit of a shock.  The good news, however, is that since last year when the Academy expanded its Best Picture nominations to a field of 10, my favorites still end up getting a nomination.  My numbers one and two for this past year, “Winter’s Bone” and “Black Swan” respectively, both got nominated for Best Picture… neither of them will win.  I will go into detail on each nominee in the top categories, explaining the rationale behind my choices, and then summarize the technical, documentary, and short film awards.

 

(Editor’s Note: We done found ourselves a ringer!)

 

On to the nominees!

 

BEST PICTURE

Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

 

Let’s break it down:

 

Black Swan—female-centered, borderline horror film, lesbian sex, ballet focus = no way in hell.

 

Winter’s Bone—small, controlled, female-centered, poor people in Appalachia, meth = no hope.

 

The Kids Are All Right—Lesbians, female-centered = lucky to be nominated.

 

Inception—Huh? Too deep for them = not going to happen.

 

127 Hours—a one armed pony = need two arms to hold Oscar… nope.

 

Toy Story 3—animated; going to win Animated Film = cartoons don’t win Best Picture.

 

The Fighter—Boxing, adversity, see Rocky and Million Dollar Baby = maybe, but not this year.

 

True Grit—Western. Check. Lots of nominations. Check. = possible, but lacks momentum.

 

The Social Network—well-made; Sorkin, Fincher, Facebook, geek inherits earth, geek slimy even by slimy geek in Hollywood standards = see note on zeitgeist.

 

The King’s Speech—has it all! Harmless, British, epic, empowering, sympathetic = WIN!

 

Will Win: The King’s Speech

Should Win: Winter’s Bone

Could Pull It Out: The Social Network

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

David O. Russell, The Fighter

Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

David Fincher, The Social Network

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit

 

David O. Russell… Mediocre work. Still bad feelings about him in Hollywood due to past misbehavior, but he is on his way back to redemption. Maybe another year, with another film.  Then again, maybe not = But definitely not this year.

 

Joel and Ethan Cohen… crafted another amazing film, and a blockbuster western, at that.  But they just won very recently.  And this film, while really strong, is nowhere near their best work. = make room for someone else.

 

Darren Aronofsky… We will be talking about him and studying his work for decades to come.  He is the only true “auteur” in this list.  And they will have to recognize him eventually.  But they only recognized Scorsese a few years ago for The Departed (2006), after overlooking him for Goodfellas, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull… you see where I am going with this right?  So Aronofsky will have to wait.  True directorial trailblazers have to wait a long time for their work to be awarded by the Academy… if it ever is (see Orson Welles) = Someday, but not this day.

 

Tom Hooper… Best Director almost never goes to a first time nominee.  He helmed the Best Picture front-runner, but he was largely an unknown name before this.  He has, however, been making the rounds and uniformly charming the pants off of EVERYONE during this awards’ season.  This is a close one.  He won the DGA (Director’s Guild of America) award.  Logic would have it that will win this award.  But I don’t think it is going to happen. = Tom who?  Oh, him.  He was charming.  Maybe.

 

David Fincher… he directed the film formerly known as the frontrunner.  He is well respected and well liked in Hollywood.  The critics love him.  He has been slogging away, crafting well-made film after well-made film, for a couple of decades now.  Some of his work is MUCH LOVED (see Fight Club, Se7en, Zodiac).  He has been nominated before for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button = WIN!

 

Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Could Pull It Out: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

[Editor’s Note: At this point, it should be pointed out that Damion is familiar with academic writing and placed quotations around all of his movie titles. The standard format for movies and novels on the Institute blog is to have them in italics. However, at this point, we will revert to the originally submitted format as the editor—me—has been helping one of his best friends move all day and is too tired to think straight. I won’t have this column missing its debut because I was too tired to edit. So where you see quotations, imagine italics. Thanks and nite-nite.]

 

BEST ACTOR

Javier Bardem, “Biutiful”

Jeff Bridges, “True Grit”

Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”

Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

James Franco, “127 Hours”

 

Jeff Bridges… Loved by all.  Loved so much they just gave him this award last year for “Crazy Heart” (2009).  = Nope.

 

Javier Bardem… Championed by some big power-players in Hollywood.  That is how he got this nomination.  Won an Oscar just a few years ago for “No Country For Old Men” (2007). = Not for all the tears in the film’s trailer.

 

Jesse Eisenberg… Gave a strong performance of a very unlikeable real person/character.  He is one to watch. = But this is not his year.

 

James Franco… He carries the entire film… single handedly… HA!  He is co-hosting the Oscars with Anne Hathaway.  He is a renaissance man and actor, and will be around for decades to come.  He will get his Oscar eventually.  Still a bit young.  But they love him and are grooming him for legendary actor status. = Hang in there! (hahaha)

 

Colin Firth… The lead in the front-runner film.  Many people thought he should have won for “A Single Man” (2009).  Has been turning in solid work, without a lot of ego, for a long time.  He is the definitive Mr. Darcy.  He plays a real person (Oscar likey), who overcomes a massive obstacle (stuttering), is British playing royalty (Oscar really likey) = WIN!

 

Will Win: Colin Firth “The King’s Speech”

Should Win: Colin Firth “The King’s Speech”

Could Pull It Out: No one else. This is soooo Colin Firth’s Oscar!

 

 

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”

Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”

Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”

Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

Michelle Williams, “Blue Valentine”

 

Jennifer Lawrence… She was GREAT in “Winter’s Bone”.  She’ll be great in the future too… if she continues to pick good roles.  We’ll see how she is in the new X-Men movie… Jennifer, follow Michelle Williams’ path.  That is the path to longevity… not X-Men sequels. = Too soon.

 

Nicole Kidman… Plays a mother of a dead child.  Is a solidly good actor.  Has already won for “The Hours” (2002). = No.

 

Michelle Williams… Turning in great, interesting, and accomplished work after great, interesting, and accomplished work.  She is building a career for the books.  Along with James Franco, Ryan Gosling, and Anne Hathaway, she is one of the future legendary children. Competition is too strong this year, and her film is too small… and a DOWNER! = Sorry Michelle.  You’ll get yours soon.

 

Annette Bening… Hollywood Royalty. Poor, poor Annette, ask Faye Dunaway playing Joan Crawford how they treat “Hollywood Royalty”.  Nominated three previous times for AMAZING work in “The Grifters” (1990), “American Beauty” (1999), and “Being Julia” (2004).  But she always finds herself up against someone else running a stronger race.  She is way beyond due.  But it is starting to look like she will fall into the category of brilliant actresses who are destined to never win an Oscar (Joan Allen, Glenn Close, Julianne Moore, and several others). = Sigh.  But who knows?  Maybe she can pull off the upset for playing a cranky, overbearing, butch lesbian mother with a cheating spouse… doubtful, but maybe.

 

Natalie Portman…  Natalie has been putting in solid work since age 11.  She is young and beautiful (The Academy loves this in their Best Actress winners), and a veteran of the industry who has previously been nominated for “Closer” (2004).  That she turns in a bravura physically and emotionally and mentally challenging performance that will stand the test of time only secures Oscar’s favor. = WIN!

 

Will Win: Natalie Portman “Black Swan”

Should Win: Natalie Portman “Black Swan”

Could Pull It Out: Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right”

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”

Jeremy Renner, “The Town”

Mark Ruffalo, “The Kids Are All Right”

Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

 

John Hawkes… should win this hands down for his brilliant work.  But he is really lucky to be nominated.  Film is small, and Bale is an unstoppable force. = Sorry John.

 

Mark Ruffalo… It must be frustrating to consistently turn in solid, competent, and unflashy work.  He doesn’t get noticed as much as he should.  The nomination is his acknowledgement.  = Maybe one day.

 

Jeremy Renner… It is a testament to how much they like him after last year in “The Hurt Locker” (2009).  Unfortunately, this year is also an also ran. = Nope.

 

Geoffrey Rush… They love him.  He already has an Oscar, for “Shine” (1996).  He, virtually single-handedly, got this film together and made.  = He is the dark horse.

 

Christian Bale… But Christian Bale will win this award.  It was written in the stars.  It is showy, actory, physically transforming, work.  He plays a real person.  He is way beyond due.  = WIN!

 

Will Win: Christian Bale “The Fighter”

Should Win:  John Hawkes “Winter’s Bone”

Could Pull It Out: Geoffrey Rush “The King’s Speech”

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, “The Fighter”

Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”

Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”

Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”

Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”

 

This is the toughest and closest category of the night.

 

Jacki Weaver… haunting, powerful work.  Easily the best in the category.  But the film is largely unseen.  And while she has been working for a long time, in Australia, she is relatively unknown here. = Sorry Jacki.

 

Amy Adams… She has racked up a few nominations already.  Hollywood clearly loves her.  And she is the best thing in the movie.  But this is too competitive a category, and she will split votes with Melissa Leo. = Not this year, Amy.  But you will get one soon.

 

Melissa Leo… The former frontrunner in this category seemed unstoppable just two months ago.  But that is a long time for Oscar.  And her self-run, in-your-face, pick me, pick me, pick me campaigning, while honest, has turned a lot of people off, causing them to look elsewhere. = She almost had it in the bag, and could still pull it out, but I think she lost it.

Hailee Steinfeld… She is the LEAD in her film, and she carries it quite well.  Turning in a strong performance that more than holds its own against some big actors.  She is 14.  This is the category where Oscar most likes to reward child actors.  But that is also rare.  The film got 10 nominations, and people might want to reward it with one of the biggies.  This would be where that would happen.  She is new to the scene. = It might happen.  Dark Horse.

 

Helena Bonham Carter… Most people are picking Melissa or Hailee to win.  But I think Helena has come on strong in the last stretch and will snatch the trophy.  She has never won, but has been previously nominated.  She has been turning in stellar work for decades (not including “Planet of the Apes”).  Her film is nominated for 12 awards.  A sweep for the film will carry her along with it.  Thanks to Melissa’s brusque campaign style, people will look at the category again, and notice Helena’s quiet and strong supporting work as the Queen Mum.  As much as Oscar loves to reward child actors and actors playing prostitutes in this category, it loves to reward actors playing the supporting wife or girlfriend more. = WIN!

 

Will Win: Helena Bonham Carter “The King’s Speech”

Should Win: Jackie Weaver “Animal Kingdom”

Could Pull It Out: Melissa Leo “The Fighter” or Hailee Steinfeld “True Grit”

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“How to Train Your Dragon”

“The Illusionist”

“Toy Story 3″

 

A story about a boy having to grow up and leave his toys behind?  Left men crying… worldwide.  Pixar, Pixar, Pixar.  Let there be no doubt, “Toy Story 3” had this one in the bag.

 

Will Win: “Toy Story 3”

Should Win: “How to Train Your Dragon”

Could Pull It Out: Nothing. “Toy Story 3” is unbeatable

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

“127 Hours”

“The Social Network”

“Toy Story 3″

“True Grit”

“Winter’s Bone”

 

“The Social Network”, no matter what your view of the film, has an AMAZING script!  It will need to win more than Best Director, if Fincher wins.  Aaron Sorkin’s script is, much like his work on “The West Wing”, smart, witty, quick, sumptuous, and compelling.  Sorkin is loved.

 

Will Win: “The Social Network”

Should Win: “The Social Network”

Could Pull It Out: Nothing.  Aaron Sorkin will win for “The Social Network”.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

“Another Year”

“The Fighter”

“Inception”

“The Kids Are All Right”

“The King’s Speech”

 

SWEEP!!!!!  It is a pretty good script, though.

 

Will Win: “The King’s Speech”

Should Win: “The Kids Are All Right”

Could Pull It Out: Nothing.  “The King’s Speech” has it in the bag.

 

 

BEST ART DIRECTION

“Alice in Wonderland”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1″

“Inception”

“The King’s Speech”

“True Grit”

 

The Art Direction in “The King’s Speech” is gorgeous.  Alice In Wonderland is not nominated for Best Picture.  Part of the sweep!

 

Will Win: “The King’s Speech”

Should Win: “The King’s Speech”

Could Pull It Out: “Alice in Wonderland”

 

 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

“Black Swan”

“Inception”

“The King’s Speech”

“The Social Network”

“True Grit”

 

10 nominations for “True Grit”.  And it may get shut out.  But I don’t think so.  This is the clearest place for it to win.  Roger Deakins has never won.  And he has lensed some of the most astounding films of the last 25 years.  This is his 9th nomination.  If anyone is “Due” for a win, it is Roger Deakins.

 

Will Win: “True Grit”

Should Win: “Black Swan”

Could Pull It Out: “Inception”

 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

“Alice in Wonderland”

“I Am Love”

“The King’s Speech”

“The Tempest”

“True Grit”

 

Period dress + Best Picture frontrunner = Win!  But so does Tim Burton film= win.  I think this one will go with the “The King’s Speech”… but I could be wrong.  Close call.

 

Will Win: “The King’s Speech”

Should Win: “I Am Love”

Could Pull It Out: “Alice In Wonderland”

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

“Exit through the Gift Shop”

“Gasland”

“Inside Job”

“Restrepo”

“Waste Land”

 

Will enough people want to see if/how Banksy will show up at the ceremony given that he cannot hide behind a mask?  If so, that could put it over the top.  But I think “Inside Job” will win.  P.S. see “Exit through the Gift Shop”.  It is amazing.

 

Will Win: “Inside Job”

Should Win: “Exit through the Gift Shop”

Could Pull It Out: “Exit through the Gift Shop”

 

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“Killing, the Name”

“Poster Girl”

“Strangers No More”

“Sun Come Up”

“The Warriors of Qiugang”

 

Your guess is as good as mine.  It appears to be down to “Strangers No More” and “Poster Girl”.  NB:  These categories are where you can pick up a lot of points… and lose a lot of points. I personally bat about 50/50 on the short film categories.

 

Will Win: “Strangers No More”

Should Win: “Poster Girl”

Could Pull It Out: “Poster Girl”

 

BEST FILM EDITING

“Black Swan”

“The Fighter”

“The King’s Speech”

“127 Hours”

“The Social Network”

 

“The Social Network” won the guild award.  But sometimes this category can go with the sweep, or the film that has the MOST editing.  I pick “The Social Network”, but narrowly over “The King’s Speech” and “127 Hours”.

 

Will Win: “The Social Network”

Should Win: “Black Swan”

Could Pull It Out: “127 Hours”

 

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

“Biutiful,” Mexico

“Dogtooth,” Greece

“In a Better World,” Denmark

“Incendies,” Canada

“Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi),” Algeria

 

It comes down to Denmark vs. Canada.  “Dogtooth” is too weird for the Foreign Film branch, “Biutiful” is too depressing. “In a Better World” is juuuuust right!

 

Will Win: “In a Better World”

Should Win: didn’t see them all, so I can’t judge what should win here.

Could Pull It Out: “Incendies”

 

 

BEST MAKEUP

“Barney’s Version”

“The Way Back”

“The Wolfman”

 

I think Rick Baker’s monster effects in “The Wolfman” will triumph over the old age makeup in “Barney’s Version”.

 

Will Win: “The Wolfman”

Should Win: “The Wolfman”

Could Pull It Out: “Barney’s Version”

 

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE

“How to Train Your Dragon”

“Inception”

“The King’s Speech”

“127 Hours”

“The Social Network”

 

“The Social Network had the best score of the year in my opinion.  But I don’t get to vote.  Alexandre Desplat’s work in “The King’s Speech” is lovely and will most likely win here.

Sorry Trent Reznor… though you totally deserve it.

 

Will Win: “The King’s Speech”

Should Win: “The Social Network”

Could Pull It Out: “127 Hours”

 

BEST SONG

“Coming Home” (“Country Strong”)

“I See the Light” (“Tangled”)

“If I Rise” (“127 Hours”)

“We Belong Together” (“Toy Story 3″)

Remember when I listed the rules of picking Oscar winners?  Never bet against Randy Newman!  I won’t start here.  Did I mention that adult men openly wept over this film?  “Toy Story 3” racks up another win.

Will Win: “We Belong Together” from “Toy Story 3”

Should Win: “If I Rise”

Could Pull It Out: “If I Rise”

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

“Day & Night”

“The Gruffalo”

“Let’s Pollute”

“The Lost Thing”

“Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)”

 

“Day & Night” is the likely winner over “The Gruffalo”… but just barely.  The fact that is is Pixar surely helps.

 

Will Win: “Day & Night”

Should Win: “The Gruffalo”

Could Pull It Out: “The Gruffalo”

 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

“The Confession”

“The Crush”

“God of Love”

“Na Wewe”

“Wish 143″

“Wish 143” should pull it out in a squeaker over “Na Wewe”… the tugging of heartstrings goes a long way!

 

Will Win: “Wish 143”

Should Win: “Wish 143”

Could Pull It Out: “Na Wewe”

 

BEST SOUND EDITING

“Inception”

“Toy Story 3″

“Tron: Legacy”

“True Grit”

“Unstoppable”

 

“Inception” will take the sound and visual effects awards.  Count on it.  And deservedly so.

 

Will Win: “Inception”

Should Win: “Inception”

Could Pull It Out: Nothing

 

BEST SOUND MIXING

“Inception”

“The King’s Speech”

“Salt”

“The Social Network”

“True Grit”

 

(see note above… add to it that sound is key in a film about a King overcoming a stutter.  This could go to “The King’s Speech” if the sweep for the film is strong enough.)

 

Will Win: “Inception”

Should Win: “Inception”

Could Pull It Out: “The King’s Speech”

 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

“Alice, Wonderland”

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1″

“Hereafter”

“Inception”

“Iron Man 2″

 

If “Inception” wins nothing else, it will win this.

 

Will Win: “Inception”

Should Win: “Inception”

Could Pull It Out: Nothing

 

Totals:

 

“The King’s Speech” – 7

“The Social Network” – 3

“Inception” – 3

“Toy Story 3” – 2

“Black Swan” – 1

“The Fighter” – 1

“True Grit” – 1

“The Wolfman” – 1

“Inside Job” – 1

“In a Better World” – 1

“Strangers No More” – 1

“Wish 143” – 1

“Day & Night” – 1

 

There you have it!  Take it for what it is worth… the studied ramblings of a 25 year Oscar obsessive who usually wins at Oscar pools and parties… or comes close to winning. (I have had my off years).  I hope your favorites win, and I wish you the best of luck and enjoy the Awards!